What awaits America in the 2012 election?
Courtesy of Jarek Tuszynski.
It seems as though the quadrennial event that all Americans eagerly await has already been decided—at least within the liberal Harvard bubble. President Obama seems to be on the right track to earn a second term in office! Surely, someone as influential and awesome as Elizabeth Warren will take back Joe Kennedy’s Senate seat! We generally expect electoral victories along those ideological lines throughout the rest of the nation!
Of course, Harvard is disconnected from the rest of the country, the state, and even the Census Metropolitan Area. Nothing is set in stone with six months to go before Election Day. Yet the problem is deeper than that. The Harvard community’s comfortable conceptions of the outside often go unquestioned, particularly when students here are emotionally invested in something as personal as the political.
In the next few months, many war-themed clichés will be uttered. The campaigns will escalate. The battle lines will be drawn. The race for President may be somewhat in line with Harvard’s general expectations, but the rest of the electoral landscape remains ambiguous. Once the victors emerge, America is likely to see itself saddled with the same set of politicians and dominant ideologies as was found following the 2010 election.
The current climate necessitates an analysis of the presidential election in particular. The American public seems to have welcomed Mitt Romney as the presumptive Republican nominee, albeit with lukewarm arms. He’s a real Al Gore, only he went to BYU, not Harvard, and he has slightly better hair. President Obama, who continues to outperform Romney in the polls, has recently improved his image, becoming visibly more determined to stick to his principles, and continues to hold high personal popularity amongst American voters. Nevertheless, the President’s enemies are strong-willed and guarantee a rocky road for the Obama campaign over the summer.
Despite conservative criticisms to the contrary, many of President Obama’s policies have had a positive impact on the economy, and his current popularity no doubt stems from the boost in employment numbers and the revival of key industries, such as the automotive sector. While Romney is not a particularly appealing candidate for the GOP base — a bit too conservative for moderates, far too moderate for conservatives — he does have a strong message on the economy. If something were to go wrong over the summer, which is always a real possibility (say, if the European economic crisis were to spin out of control, or if unemployment numbers were to creep back up), Obama’s base of support could be on its last legs, and Romney could be elected out of a desire for economic change.
The electoral landscape on the levels below Obam/ney is far more uncertain. The House of Representatives shifted dramatically to the right in the last election, and this will be the first time the newly elected Congresspeople will face a test at the hands of their voters. With that test in mind, much of the change (or lack thereof) in the House this November will be tied to the energy around whoever is elected president. If Obama fairs well, Democrats riding his coattails could threaten the many Tea Party-affiliated freshmen and potentially even swing the House back to Democratic control. However, even if Obama does well, the Citizens United decision, which promotes increased corporate spending in political campaigns and related media, could likely counteract Obama’s popularity in favor of conservative candidates.
A similar story can be told about the chances in the Senate this fall. While Senators from both parties are retiring, and their seats are up for competition in numerous states, it looks like the Democrats’ tenuous majority is in danger of falling apart. Far fewer Democratic candidates are performing strongly than would be needed to replicate the makeup of the current Senate. This class of Senators was last elected in 2006, when the Democrats were performing much better nationally. Not even Obama’s victory would be likely to sustain this Senate makeup in light Citizens United.
Republicans, despite the distraction around Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket, stand to perform extremely well this November. It is very possible that President Obama could be re-elected with both houses of Congress controlled by the Republicans, which would likely mean much of the same partisanship which plagues the District of Columbia would continue. This far out, any analysis is built on uncertainty and contingency, but November’s results will most likely boil down to the state of America’s economy. Nevertheless, Obama seems to be on the right track.
This summer, stay informed. Watch the news, or, better yet, read the news. Get involved in local political campaigns that have meaning for you. Knock on doors. Spread a message. Get out there and get involved in the political system, and maybe you can help to remake it in the image of whatever you feel is best for America.
Gary Gerbrandt ’14 (garygerbrandt@college) wrote down “political analyst” for his high school yearbook’s Future Career section.